MIAMI -- Tropical Storm Nicole has crossed the state and is now tracking the Gulf Coast north of Tampa. It's expected to bring rain and storm surge to the Big Bend and heavy rain to parts of north Florida before a second landfall near Tallahassee. Top winds are weakening to 45 and the storm is moving northwest at 15.

Here is the advisory from the National Hurricane Center:

..CENTER OF NICOLE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA

PENINSULA...

...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND WAVES, AND HEAVY RAINS

CONTINUE OVER A LARGE AREA...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...28.6N 82.6W

ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM N OF TAMPA FLORIDA

ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida west coast has been

discontinued south of the middle of Longboat Key.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Sebastian Inlet Florida to South Santee River South Carolina

* The middle of Longboat Key to Indian Pass Florida

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia

* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida

* Anclote River Florida to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida

* Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in

the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please

see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,

available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.

Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions

to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for

other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other

instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern

coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was

located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 82.6 West. Nicole is

now moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn

toward the north-northwest is expected later this afternoon,

followed by a turn toward the north tonight. Nicole is expected to

accelerate north-northeastward on Friday. On the forecast track, the

center of Nicole will move over the far northeastern Gulf of

Mexico in the next several hours and then move inland over the

eastern Florida Panhandle tonight. Nicole should move northward

into Georgia later tonight, and then move through the southeastern

United States on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (70 km/h)

with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected while

Nicole is over the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and evening.

Nicole is expected to weaken to a depression over Georgia tonight,

and then it is expected to merge with a frontal boundary over the

Mid-Atlantic United States by Friday night.

Nicole remains a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds

extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km) from the center, especially

to the northeast. During the past few hours, there have been

numerous reports of wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph (70 to 90 km/h)

across the eastern and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula.

The estimated minimum central pressure from surface observation is

988 mb (29.18 inches). Brooksville, Florida, recently reported a

pressure of 989.2 mb (29.21 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,

and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the

east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina in the warning

areas today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to

occur within the warning area along the west coast of Florida

through tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could

reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated

areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the

St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft

* Anclote River to Ochlockonee River...3 to 5 ft

* Altamaha Sound Georgia to the South Santee River South

Carolina...2 to 4 ft

* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to Georgetown

Florida...2 to 4 ft

* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...2 to 4 ft

* Englewood to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft

* Sebastian Inlet to Hallandale Beach Florida...1 to 3 ft

* South Santee River to Surf City North Carolina...1 to 2 ft

* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach Florida including

Biscayne Bay...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to

the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be

accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding

depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and

can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to

your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather

Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall

amounts through Saturday:

* Northwest Bahamas into portions of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5

inches with local maxima of 8 inches.

* Southeast into the central Appalachians and eastern portions of

Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio: 2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6

inches along the Blue Ridge.

* Northern Mid-Atlantic into New England: 1 to 4 inches.

Flash and urban flooding will be possible, along with renewed river

rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula today.

Heavy rainfall from this system will spread northward across

portions of the Southeast, upper Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and New

England Thursday through Saturday, where limited flooding impacts

will be possible.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with

Hurricane Nicole, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with

the WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon over parts

of coastal east-central and northeastern Florida. The tornado

threat will spread northward across parts of southeastern Georgia

and the Carolinas this afternoon through Friday morning.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern

Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern

United States coast during the next few days. These swells are

likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please consult products from your local weather office.

Photo: National Hurricane Center

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